Caribbean Music Awards 2026: Predictions & Dark Horses

The Caribbean Music Awards are coming home — and this year's race may be the most difficult to predict yet.

On September 19, the fourth annual Caribbean Music Awards will take over the National Academy for the Performing Arts (NAPA) in Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, marking the first time the ceremony will be staged in the Caribbean after three editions in Brooklyn, New York. The awards are part of a three-day Caribbean Music Awards Elite Weekend Experience running September 18–20.

More than 250 nominees are competing across 40-plus categories in 2026. Lady Lava leads the entire field with nine nominations, while Ayetian, Machel Montano and V'ghn have seven each. Shenseea and Skillibeng follow with six, while Masicka, Popcaan, Valiant, Vybz Kartel and Yung Bredda have five apiece.

But who is actually going to win?

Caribbean EMagazine went beyond simply choosing the biggest names. We examined the results from the first three Caribbean Music Awards, the current nominations and — most importantly — how the Awards say winners are selected.

What Previous Winners Tell Us

There is a noticeable pattern in the Caribbean Music Awards' short history.

The inaugural 2023 ceremony rewarded a combination of established stars and artists who had undeniable momentum: Masicka's 438 won Dancehall Album of the Year, Kabaka Pyramid's Grammy-winning The Kalling took Reggae Album of the Year, Spice won Female Dancehall Artist, Machel Montano took Male Soca Artist and Kes captured People's Choice.

In 2024, Masicka repeated with Generation of Kings, while Shenseea, Lila Iké, Patrice Roberts, Valiant, Romain Virgo and Skinny Fabulous took major artist awards. "Talibans" by Byron Messia captured Dancehall Song of the Year.

Then came 2025, when Shenseea had a particularly dominant showing: Never Gets Late Here won Dancehall Album of the Year, "Hit & Run" with Masicka and Di Genius won Dancehall Song and Collaboration of the Year, and Shenseea was named Female Dancehall Artist of the Year. Romain Virgo's The Gentle Man won Reggae Album, while "Been There Before" featuring Masicka won Reggae Song of the Year. Vybz Kartel also captured People's Choice.

That history suggests the CMA tends to reward more than reputation. Momentum, major records, cultural visibility, fan engagement and a strong body of work all matter.

And that makes 2026 fascinating.

The Awards' published process confirms why. According to the CMA, winners are determined using a weighted model incorporating final public voting, verified performance data and Industry Advisory Board evaluation. The organization also says its broader consideration process tracks streaming and digital charts, radio and DJ impact, live performances, audience engagement, media coverage, cultural relevance and regional and diaspora influence.

With that in mind, here are Caribbean EMagazine's predictions.

🏆 PEOPLE'S CHOICE

Nominees: Alkaline, Dexta Daps, Kes, Lady Lava, Shenseea, Vybz Kartel, Voice and Yung Bredda.

CEM Prediction: Vybz Kartel

This may be the safest prediction on the board.

Kartel won People's Choice in 2025, and the extraordinary fan mobilization surrounding his post-prison career has not disappeared. With another five nominations this year, his ability to generate attention remains almost unmatched within contemporary Caribbean music.

People's Choice is also different from most CMA categories: the Awards specifically describe it as being determined by public votes.

That gives an artist with Kartel's intensely organized fan base an enormous advantage.

Dark Horse: Lady Lava

Do not underestimate the home-field factor.

Lady Lava enters the ceremony as the most nominated artist of 2026 with nine nods. With the Awards taking place in Trinidad for the first time, local enthusiasm could translate into one of the night's biggest surprises.

Prediction: Vybz Kartel

Dark Horse: Lady Lava

DANCEHALL

🏆 Male Dancehall Artist of the Year

The field is stacked: 450, Alkaline, Armanii, Ayetian, Masicka, Popcaan, Valiant and Vybz Kartel.

CEM Prediction: Vybz Kartel

Masicka, Popcaan and Valiant all have legitimate cases, but Kartel's overall cultural footprint gives him the edge.

The question is whether voters reward current musical output alone or the entire magnitude of his resurgence.

If the answer is the latter, Kartel is extremely difficult to beat.

Dark Horse: Masicka

If anyone is positioned to deny Kartel the trophy, Masicka may be the strongest challenger.

Masicka already has a proven history with Caribbean Music Awards voters. His 438 won Dancehall Album of the Year at the inaugural ceremony in 2023, and he repeated the achievement with Generation of Kings in 2024.

That track record matters.

Masicka also enters the 2026 ceremony with five nominations, including Male Dancehall Artist of the Year, while Her Name Is Love is competing for Dancehall Album of the Year. His continued consistency, strong album work and ability to remain among dancehall's leading artists without relying solely on viral moments make him a serious threat.

Kartel may have the bigger cultural narrative heading into awards night, but Masicka has something equally important: a history of being rewarded by this particular voting body.

If the category leans heavily toward sustained musical output and recent body of work rather than overall cultural impact, Masicka could pull off one of the night's biggest wins.

And don't completely count out Ayetian. With seven nominations — the most among dancehall artists this year — he remains the breakout threat capable of disrupting a race dominated by more established names.

Prediction: Vybz Kartel

Dark Horse: Masicka

Breakout Threat: Ayetian

🏆 Female Dancehall Artist of the Year

Nominees: Jada Kingdom, Shaneil Muir, Shenseea, Spice, Stalk Ashley and Vanessa Bling.

CEM Prediction: Shenseea

Until someone takes the crown from her, Shenseea remains the favorite. She won this category in both 2024 and 2025 and arrives in 2026 with six nominations.

More importantly, she continues to occupy a unique position: commercially international enough to reach audiences beyond dancehall while remaining connected to the genre.

Dark Horse: Jada Kingdom

Jada Kingdom could spoil the repeat.

Her nomination for Female Dancehall Artist plus Dancehall Song of the Year for "G.A.D" reflects a growing crossover moment for an artist who has steadily expanded her reach.

Prediction: Shenseea

Dark Horse: Jada Kingdom

🏆 Dancehall Album of the Year

This is arguably one of the strongest categories of the ceremony.

Masicka's Her Name Is Love, Popcaan's Nothing Without God, 450's Pieces of Me, Valiant's Prove Them Wrong, Prince Swanny's Saint, Armanii's The Impact, Vybz Kartel's Viking and Ding Dong's From Ding Dong to World Ding are nominated.

CEM Prediction: Her Name Is Love — Masicka

History matters here. Masicka won Dancehall Album of the Year at the inaugural CMA with 438 and again in 2024 with Generation of Kings.

That tells us CMA voters have consistently responded to Masicka's album-making.

Her Name Is Love also demonstrates another side of his artistry, making him our narrow favorite.

Dark Horse: The Impact — Armanii

Armanii's debut deserves serious consideration.

The Impact reached No. 1 on the U.S. iTunes Reggae chart and U.S. Apple Music Reggae chart and No. 8 on Billboard's Reggae Albums chart.

That is exactly the type of measurable performance that could matter under the CMA's weighted system.

Prediction: Her Name Is Love — Masicka

Dark Horse: The Impact — Armanii

🏆 Dancehall Song of the Year

This could produce the night's closest vote.

CEM Prediction: “Shake It to the Max (Fly) Remix” — Moliy, Skillibeng & Shenseea

Sometimes a record simply becomes too culturally large to ignore.

"Shake It to the Max (Fly) Remix" is the most nominated song at the 2026 Caribbean Music Awards, appearing across three categories.

Its combination of crossover visibility, dance culture, Caribbean identity and international reach makes it the strongest overall candidate.

Dark Horse: “Wah Yo Deh Pon” — Ayetian & Govana

"Wah Yo Deh Pon" appears in both Song and Collaboration categories and forms an important part of Ayetian's seven-nomination breakthrough.

Prediction: “Shake It to the Max (Fly) Remix”

Dark Horse: “Wah Yo Deh Pon”

REGGAE

🏆 Male Reggae Artist of the Year

Beres Hammond, Buju Banton, Christopher Martin, Chronixx, Damian Marley, Romain Virgo, Shaggy and Tarrus Riley form a category with almost no weak nominee.

CEM Prediction: Chronixx

This is one of our riskier predictions.

Romain Virgo has history firmly on his side after winning Male Reggae Artist in both 2024 and 2025. But 2026 presents a different dynamic with Chronixx back in album contention through Exile.

The combination of anticipation, critical interest and Chronixx's international standing could be enough to disrupt Virgo's run.

Dark Horse: Romain Virgo

Calling the two-time defending winner a "dark horse" sounds strange, but the attention surrounding newer projects may cause Virgo to be underestimated.

That would be a mistake.

Prediction: Chronixx

Dark Horse: Romain Virgo

🏆 Female Reggae Artist of the Year

Alaine, Etana, Koffee, Lila Iké, Queen Omega, Sevana, Tanya Stephens and Tessanne Chin are nominated.

CEM Prediction: Lila Iké

This is another category where history cannot be ignored.

Lila Iké won Female Reggae Artist in 2024 and again in 2025. Now she enters 2026 with four nominations and Treasure Self Love competing for Reggae Album of the Year. A three-peat is very possible.

Dark Horse: Sevana

Sevana won Reggae Best New Artist last year and now graduates into the main Female Reggae Artist field while also earning an Impact Award nomination.

That trajectory makes her one of the most interesting challengers.

Prediction: Lila Iké

Dark Horse: Sevana

🏆 Reggae Album of the Year

CEM Prediction: Exile — Chronixx

The field includes albums from Keznamdi, Chronixx, Glen Washington, I-Octane, Sanchez, Jesse Royal, Lila Iké and Duane Stephenson.

Our pick is Exile.

Chronixx's return carries enormous significance for modern reggae, and the album's presence in this category reinforces how quickly he has re-entered the center of the conversation.

Dark Horse: Treasure Self Love — Lila Iké

Never underestimate Lila Iké at these awards.

After back-to-back Female Reggae Artist wins, an Album of the Year victory would represent a logical progression.

Prediction: Exile — Chronixx

Dark Horse: Treasure Self Love — Lila Iké

🏆 Reggae Song of the Year

CEM Prediction: “Big 45” — Protoje

Protoje's "Big 45" faces Anthony B's "Good Music," Aiesha's "Jamaica Strong," Jesse Royal and Agent Sasco's "So High," Zion Marley's "The Door," Shaggy and Sting's "Til A Mawnin" and Christopher Martin's "Wife and Sweetheart."

We're giving Protoje the edge.

Dark Horse: “So High” — Jesse Royal & Agent Sasco

"So High" has the advantage of appearing in both Reggae Song and Reggae Collaboration, giving it multiple points of visibility within the ballot.

Prediction: “Big 45” — Protoje

Dark Horse: “So High” — Jesse Royal & Agent Sasco

SOCA

And this is where geography could become particularly interesting.

The 2026 ceremony is being staged in Trinidad and Tobago — soca's spiritual center — for the first time. That does not determine the winners, but it certainly changes the atmosphere surrounding these categories.

🏆 Male Soca Artist of the Year

Bunji Garlin, Full Blown, Kes, Machel Montano, Mical Teja, V'ghn, Voice and Yung Bredda are nominated.

CEM Prediction: Machel Montano

Machel enters with seven nominations and will essentially be competing on home soil. He also has CMA history: he won Male Soca Artist at the inaugural ceremony. This feels like a year when momentum, legacy and location could converge.

Dark Horse: Yung Bredda

Five nominations make Yung Bredda impossible to dismiss, particularly given his growing regional popularity.

Prediction: Machel Montano

Dark Horse: Yung Bredda

🏆 Female Soca Artist of the Year

CEM Prediction: Lady Lava

This is where Caribbean EMagazine is predicting a changing of the guard.

Patrice Roberts won Female Soca Artist in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Her consistency at these Awards has been extraordinary.

But Lady Lava enters 2026 with nine nominations — more than any other artist. And the ceremony is happening in Trinidad. If there is going to be a symbolic breakthrough moment on September 19, this could be it.

Dark Horse: Patrice Roberts

Three consecutive wins mean writing off Patrice Roberts would be foolish.

Prediction: Lady Lava

Dark Horse: Patrice Roberts

🏆 Soca Song of the Year

CEM Prediction: “Pardy” — Machel Montano

The nominees include "Carry It," "Cocoa Tea," "Dansa," "Good Spirits," "Jab Decisions," "Pardy," "Take Me Home" and "The Greatest Bend Over."

We are narrowly backing Machel Montano's "Pardy."

Dark Horse: “Jab Decisions” — V'ghn & Terra D Governor

"Jab Decisions" has something very valuable: cross-category recognition.

It is nominated for Soca Song, Soca Collaboration and Jab Song of the Year, while V'ghn himself enters the ceremony with seven nominations.

That makes "Jab Decisions" a serious upset possibility.

Prediction: “Pardy” — Machel Montano

Dark Horse: “Jab Decisions” — V'ghn & Terra D Governor

THE OVERLOOKED NOMINEES WHO COULD SHOCK EVERYONE

Beyond our category-by-category dark horses, several names deserve considerably more attention heading into awards night.

Ayetian is perhaps the clearest example. Seven nominations make him the most nominated dancehall artist of the year, yet conversations about the genre can still default to Kartel, Masicka, Popcaan,

Shenseea and Skillibeng. If Ayetian leaves Trinidad with multiple trophies, it should not be considered an upset.

V'ghn is another. Seven nominations put him alongside Ayetian and Machel Montano near the very top of the entire field. His presence across soca and jab categories illustrates exactly why the CMA's expanded approach to Caribbean genres matters.

Sevana deserves attention after moving from 2025 Reggae Best New Artist winner into Female Reggae Artist and Reggae Impact contention.

Armanii may also be underestimated. Last year's Dancehall Impact winner returns with nominations for The Impact, "BBB (Snapchat)" and Male Dancehall Artist of the Year.

And then there is Jesse Royal. Four nominations quietly place him among the more frequently recognized reggae artists in the field, with No Place Like Home, "So High" and multiple collaboration nominations giving him several routes to a trophy.

CEM'S BIG NIGHT PREDICTION

If we had to predict the three artists most likely to define the 2026 Caribbean Music Awards, our choices would be:

Vybz Kartel — DancehallThe fan base, cultural impact and post-prison momentum remain formidable.

Lady Lava — Soca/ZessNine nominations plus a Trinidad staging create the conditions for a potentially career-defining night.

Machel Montano — SocaSeven nominations, decades of cultural influence and an awards ceremony taking place in Port of Spain make him extremely difficult to overlook.

But our biggest potential breakout winner is Ayetian.

Seven nominations tell us the industry has already taken notice. September 19 could be the night the trophies catch up.

One Final Prediction: Expect Surprises

The Caribbean Music Awards are still young enough that voting patterns are evolving.

Yet the first three ceremonies reveal something encouraging: voters have been willing to recognize legends, established stars and emerging artists rather than simply handing every trophy to the biggest international name.

That matters.

And in 2026, the voting system makes predictions even more complicated. Public support matters, but so do verified performance data and evaluation from the Industry Advisory Board.

Perhaps most importantly, the ceremony itself has changed.

For three years, Caribbean music gathered in Brooklyn to celebrate itself.

On September 19, the Caribbean Music Awards will finally take place in the Caribbean.

That makes this more than another awards night.

Whether the biggest winners are Kartel, Shenseea, Lady Lava, Machel Montano, Chronixx, Lila Iké, Ayetian — or someone almost nobody predicted — the fourth Caribbean Music Awards will represent an important test of what the institution wants to reward as it enters its next chapter.

And Caribbean EMagazine will be watching.

By Dante Jackson, Entertainment Editor | Caribbean EMagazine

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